The transcript below has been lightly edited. This has been true for a while now, too. Since Aug. First, what do we know about why his approval rating has dipped? Second, how should we think about this current dip? That is, is it unusually large or actually pretty normal?
I agree that the rise of the delta variant has likely played the biggest role, though. America went from feeling like the pandemic was behind it in early summer to experiencing the second-highest caseload of the pandemic by September. The decline in his approval rating really accelerated after the fall of Kabul.
But Afghanistan, and also the delta variant, shattered that calm and raised questions about whether Biden really was that competent after all. How big a deal is this slump, though? For over a month now, more Americans have disapproved of Biden than have approved of him. Only two other presidents since have had net negative approval ratings at this point in their terms: Gerald Ford American politics is more polarized now than at any other point in the past 80 years, so recent presidents have tended to have approval ratings closer to at this point.
Those honeymoon periods invariably end. Biden has had an approval rating above 90 percent among Democrats , but his approval among Republicans has been, at best, around 20 percent in some polls , and more like 10 percent in others. And because of it, some of the comparisons to presidents further back in time are harder to make.
Nowadays, many Americans no longer tend to give a new president from the other party some early benefit of the doubt. Read More. Worth noting: Both Bushes had hugely high ratings at this stage of their presidencies thanks to external events. For George W. Bush, he was still in the stratosphere in the wake of the September 11, , terrorist attacks. For George H. Bush, his numbers were inflated following the Tienanmen Square attack in China in June and the perceived ending of the Cold War.
Biden's numbers have fallen precipitously in Gallup polling over the last several months. The reasons for Biden's polling decline is clear: A confluence of events including a disastrous pullout of American troops from Afghanistan, the surge in Covid cases due to the Delta variant, ongoing supply chain issues and a focus on the continued struggles of the President and Democrats in Congress to pass the bulk of his domestic agenda.
Some of those developments -- most notably the emergence of the Delta variant and its ravaging of the unvaccinated in the country -- aren't Biden's fault. But when you are president, you have to take the blame for what goes wrong in the country -- whether or not it's your fault. And that's where Biden finds himself. Now, it's worth noting -- as the numbers above make clear -- that where a president stands in job approval nine months into his term is not always predictive of how he will look when he runs for a second term.
Bush, and is slightly more than the one-point decline in Obama's average. Clinton's approval rating declined nearly 11 points between his first and second quarters. Average approval for presidents before Clinton mostly held steady between their first and second quarters. The two major exceptions are Carter, whose average approval declined nearly six points, and George H. Bush, whose average increased nearly seven points.
Looking ahead, presidential approval ratings have been more likely to decline rather than increase during presidents' third quarters in office. Obama had the largest drop, of nearly 10 points , as unemployment climbed and his push for healthcare reform proved controversial. Other presidents had drops of two to four points, including Eisenhower, Nixon, Carter, Reagan and Trump.
There have been exceptions, though, as George H. Clinton's approval rating started to show improvement nearly four points higher after his unusually low second-quarter average, while Kennedy's was largely unchanged. Biden's approval rating is showing the first signs of meaningful decline.
If the lower ratings persist, it could indicate his "honeymoon" period is over. Because Republicans have been unlikely to support him from the beginning of his presidency, changes in his approval are likely to come from Democrats' and independents' evaluations of him. That is what has occurred now, with both groups slightly less positive toward Biden than they have been to this point. Still, he maintains very high approval among Democrats, and his rating among independents remains higher than his immediate predecessor Trump ever received from that group.
To stay up to date with the latest Gallup News insights and updates, follow us on Twitter. Explore President Biden's approval ratings and compare them with those of past presidents in the Gallup Presidential Job Approval Center. Learn more about how the Gallup Poll Social Series works.
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